El Nino? Super El Nino?
– by Art Dawson, Ph.D.
El Nino is coming! El Nino is already here! But what is El Nino?
El Niño is a climate event in which happens when surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. The warming water disrupts atmospheric circulation and alters weather patterns around the world. El Nino occurs frequently but not regularly. There have been roughly 2-7 years between events. (4)
El Ninos can be of different strengths. There are “Strong Events” (Super El Nino), “Moderate Events” and “Weak Events.” In recent history, the Strong Events occurred in 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-2016. Moderate events happened in 1991, 2002, 2009, 2023. (5,6)
This year’s El Nino
The 2026–27 El Niño in California has already begun. It was officially recognized in May 2026. This was announced in NOAA’s recent ENSO diagnostic report (2). The El Nino climate system has already started to influence California’s weather patterns. (3)
El Nino events are identified by monitoring sea surface temperatures. (1) An El Nino event occurs when the sea surface temperature exceeds the long-term average temperature by 0.9 F for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. For a Strong El Nino the temperature difference must be at least 2.7 F and a very strong El Nino the temperature difference must reach 3.6 F. (3)
Historically speaking
Historically speaking, El Nino and its counterpart, La Nina has been around for millions of years. Evidence of this phenomenon is found in ice cores, deep sea mud, coral, caves, and tree rings. (3) The name, El Nino was adopted by Peruvian fishermen in the 1600s. They recognized that changing ocean currents caused a drastic drop in their catch. They named the change in sea conditions “El Nino,” Little Boy. On the Peruvian coast, it typically occurred around Christmas. (3)
Practically speaking
The 2026 El Nino is already here!
It will be with us into the summer of 2027. (1)
The question is: how strong will El Nino be?
Why does it matter to me?
Rainfall:
El Niño events often include robust rainfall seasons, with higher-than-normal rainfall in areas such as Southern California and, sometimes, lower-than-normal rainfall in areas such as the Pacific Northwest.
The phenomenon seems to be associated with a “slipping” of the west- to- east jet stream into lower latitudes than “normal.” (10) When strong rainfall seasons occur in Southern and Coastal California, problems can occur for farmers. Entire field crop planting cycles can be lost due to “wet ground.” Orchards can stand in water puddles or ponds and suffer weeks of “wet feet.”
Heat:
Extreme heat events develop erratically over agricultural regions where growers are already accustomed to hot summer weather and the stress effects usually produced. By comparison, El Nino’s heat events will be extreme.
El Nino’s heat events will happen erratically. They will occur as temperature spikes with “on again, off again” timing. These can be the highest stress-inducing events of El Nino. (7)
Typically, extreme heat occurs in the early months and the later months of the El Nino year. For example, extreme heat will occur now, Summer 2026 and next year, Summer 2027. Historically, the summer following El Nino is one of the hottest in the decade (e.g. 1998 and 2016). (7)
Why does El Nino matter worldwide?
El Nino signals advance clues about storms, drought risk, crop yields, and energy demand around the world. These clues are signaled months before the events occur. Consequently, El Nino is one of the world’s most closely watched climate phenomenon.
Commodity traders, government planners, food industry executives are watching El Nino patterns for threats to specific crops, mining operations, oil and gas production, and shipping routes. Energy utility planners use El Nino patterns to forecast heating and cooling energy demands. (9)
Our U.S. crops are major players in the world’s food market. Fruits, nuts, alfalfa, grain, etc. are traded worldwide. Food and commodity traders around the world are watching U.S. weather and El Nino’s advance. This is an effort to predict future prices and availability.
The opportunity
Our opportunity to prepare for El Niño is right now. During the summer and fall of 2026, growers can take steps to improve the heat-stress resilience of tree crops, vineyards, and forages.
Extended periods of hot days and unusually warm nights will increase water stress, disrupt normal plant metabolism, and drain carbohydrate reserves. Two crop years will be affected, this year and next year.
You can support plant health and stress resilience before the heat and drought stress becomes severe. Prepare by incorporating seaweed extract products into your all cultural programs. This is done with tank mixing, direct sprays, and irrigation water. (11)
Seaweed extract products support the plant’s health and vigor in the face of environmental stress. Seaweed products build up the plant’s heat and drought resilience. Plant health and productivity are improved. Field trials consistently demonstrate that these products support crop yield. (8)
Ocean Organics’ Ascophyllum nodosum products are economical and easy to integrate into spray programs. These products are practical management tools for growers. They support plant health. They support plant vigor and support plant recovery. They should be included in all decisions for the 2026 and the 2027 growing seasons.
Our products are easily applied in irrigation water. They can be applied alone or as part of a nutrient application. They become part of the mix when “spoon feeding” through the irrigation system.
El Nino means variable weather patterns
Variability in extreme heat and dryness is the signature effect of El Nino in the summer. El Nino’s heat events are often unpredictable except immediately before they hit.
Preparation is the best strategy! You can include Ascophyllum nodosum in every spray tank you apply. The rate per acre is low, the cost per acre is low, the results will be evident to everyone who makes a professional observation.
Which Ascophyllum nodosum products should I use?
Grower’s stories speak to each of the Ocean Organics’ products (3). Each grower has his favorite product and his favorite story about protection or rescue.
The products include Guarantee Ag 0-0-1 Ascophyllum nodosum extract which produced recovery from hail damage of Nebraska wheat and aphid toxicity in Idaho alfalfa.
OMRI Listed Guarantee 0-0-6 Ascophyllum nodosum extract which is known for its contribution to potassium stomatal control during drought and heat conditions. Seaweed extracts containing potassium are favored by almond, pistachio, and grape producers in central California. Guarantee 0-0-6 can be used on either conventional or organic crops.
Guarantee Complex 0.2-0-6 contains potassium and amino acids. This product combats the carbohydrate draining effects of hot days and warm nights.
Stress RX Ag 6-0-1 is the newest of Ocean Organics’ family of products. Stress RX Ag 6-0-1 contains Ascophyllum nodosum, nitrogen and a performance boosting dosage of proprietary osmo protectants. Stress RX Ag 6-0-1 is targeted for maintaining plant cell turgor under the toughest conditions. Stress RX Ag is building a commercial reputation in California’s hottest desert climates.
Prepare!
Ask your distributor about Ocean Organics products. Ask your PCA to include them in your spray program. Use the ease and economy of tank mixes with spray applications.
Be sure to use Ascophyllum nodosum products in all post-harvest sprays this summer and fall. This will pay you back next spring.
References:
(1) El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion. June 11, 2026. National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.
(2) ENSO stands for El Niño–Southern Oscillation. It is a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that involves changes in sea surface temperatures.
(3) NOAA Climate.gov, “What is El Nino? Part 1.
(4) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (n.d.). Understanding El Niño & ENSO. NOAA. https://www.noaa.gov/understanding-el-nino
(5) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate.gov. (n.d.). El Niño & La Niña (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). https://www.climate.gov/enso
(6) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Physical Sciences Laboratory. (n.d.). Past ENSO events. U.S. Department of Commerce.
(7) U.S. Department of Agriculture Climate Hubs. (n.d.). Climate vulnerabilities of California specialty crops. USDA. https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/california/topic/climate-vulnerabilities-california-specialty-crops
(8) Shukla, P. S., Mantin, E. G., Adil, M., Bajpai, S., Critchley, A. T., & Prithiviraj, B. (2019). Ascophyllum nodosum-based biostimulants: Sustainable applications in agriculture for the stimulation of plant growth, stress tolerance, and disease management. Frontiers in Plant Science, 10, 655.
(9) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. (n.d.). Impacts of El Niño.
(10) Hoell, A. (2025, September 8). The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and drought outlook in the United States. Drought.gov. https://www.drought.gov/news/el-nino-southern-oscillation-and-drought-outlook-united-states-2025-09-08
(11) www.OceanOrganics.com
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Art Dawson, Ph. D.


